The ladder of inference

Jumping quickly to conclusions can help us come across as decisive in a fast-paced leadership environment that prizes action. It can also lead to incredible misunderstandings, and can harm our relationships.

Do any of these questions seem familiar?

  • What does it mean if we’ve been texting furiously for a half hour and she leaves me on read for the rest of the day?

  • I received a blank invitation from my boss for a meeting in the late afternoon. How worried should I be?

  • They offered to help me on my most important project. Does that mean they don’t think I can do it?

One useful tool I like to share with clients, which I first learned in coaching school, is called the Ladder of Inference. It’s the brainchild of the late Harvard professor Chris Argyris. Starting at the bottom and climbing to the top, it illustrates how we make meaning.

Here’s an example of how this might work.

Notice that the very bottom of the ladder is the only objectively verifiable information. It’s an assertion of fact, not an assessment of opinion. But we are pretty good at making inferences all the way up to the top. Imagine how detrimental it would be to stop asking for feedback altogether?

To stay close to the bottom of the ladder, ask yourself a few basic questions:

  • What do I actually know to be true here?

  • What is just an assumption?

  • If I asked someone else who isn’t involved in this situation, would they have the same answers to the first two questions?

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The Kelly optimizer